CARV is about to launch its Verifier Node Sale. This article aims to analyze the ROI of participating in the CARV Node Sale from an investment perspective.

1 CARV Node Sale Rules

According to CARV's announcement, there will be a total of 100,000 Verifier Node Licenses, and CARV will airdrop 25% of their total supply (1 billion) to all node operators.

Considering some licenses may not be sold out and some nodes may not be actually running, we assume that only 50% of the nodes can be eligible for the airdrop income. This is a reasonable assumption based on previous Node Sale projects with an average 70% sell-through rate.

Therefore, each node can receive: 1,000,000,000*25%/(100,000*50%) = 5,000 CARV tokens

2 Revenue Estimation

The next question is: How can we reasonably estimate the price of CARV tokens?

Previous Node Sale projects provide a reference:

• Gala (gala.com): Launched in 2021, currently with an FDV of $1.4B

• Xai (xai.games): Launched in 2024, currently with an FDV of $2.0B

• Aethir (aethir.com): Launched in 2024, yet to TGE, with an expected FDV of $3.5B

Conservatively, we use the lowest FDV among them, Gala, to estimate CARV's value. Assuming CARV's FDV is $1.4B, the CARV token price would be:

1,400,000,000/1,000,000,000 = $1.4

Thus, the expected revenue per node is:

5,000*$1.4 = $7,000

3 Cost Estimation

The total cost of participating in running a node includes two parts: the cost of purchasing the Node License and the cost of running the node for long-term

a) Node License Purchase Cost

According to CARV's rules, licenses are sold in different tiers. The lower the tier, the lower the price and higher the ROI. However, the lower-priced tiers are likely to be highly competitive. Tiers 1, 2, and 3 are reserved for community whitelist members, who must be selected via a lottery. Users not on the whitelist can only purchase from Tier 4 onward, with sales starting on June 5th.

Public Sale tier acquisition is based on luck. We use a stable market price offered through the InfStones and CARV partner channel at $850 as the cost estimate for the Node License.

Note: The InfStones price is lower than the price of Public Sale Tier 5 and above. If purchasing at Tier 5 or above, the Node License cost increases.

b) Node Running Cost

After purchasing the license, service providers will likely offer node operation services for you (like Aethir), eliminating the need for self-operation. InfStones is one such platform offering node services.

The monthly fee for node services typically ranges from $10 to $20. We estimate $15/month, making the annual cost:

$15*12 = $180

Combining the Node License purchase cost and the node running cost, the total cost is:

$850 + $180 = $1,030

4. ROI Estimation: 680%

Based on the estimated revenue of $7,000 and the cost of $1,030, the ROI is:

$7,000/$1,030 = 680%

Note:

1. This estimate is based on the InfStones channel cost of $850 (the channel closes on June 4th). The ROI will decrease if purchasing at a higher cost tier during the Public Sale.

2. This estimate uses the FDV of other Node Sale projects to quickly benchmark CARV's valuation. The project's actual value also depends significantly on the project's business activities and investor background.

Update:

The InfStones channel now offers a package including the License and node operation service for $900, lower than the previously estimated total cost of $1,030.