Macro interpretation:
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has recently made a series of important statements. He pointed out that over time, the Federal Reserve will gradually move towards more neutral interest rates, and the September rate cut is a strong support for the labor market. At the same time, it is emphasized that the US debt is on an unsustainable path, but it is too early to judge the impact of Trump’s tariff and other policies on the economic and interest rate prospects, and the possibility of so-called “shadow Fed chairman” is excluded, which shows that the Federal Reserve was created by Congress, acting on behalf of all countrymen people, and free from political interference.
Powell’s latest speech also includes the following points: firstly, the US economy is in good condition, the risk of labor market downturn is relatively low, economic growth is strong, inflation is slightly high, and the Federal Reserve will be more cautious in seeking a neutral point. Secondly, he is confident in working well with the new government and will establish the same relationship as other finance ministers when Besant takes office, believing that a “shadow Fed chairman” is simply impossible to exist. Powell also compared Bitcoin to gold, pointing out its virtual nature and high volatility, and that it has not been used as a payment or value storage tool, so it is not a competitor to the US dollar, but rather competing with gold.
Powell’s remarks reflect the Federal Reserve’s judgment and policy orientation on the economic situation, and its optimistic attitude towards the economy and pursuit of neutral interest rates provide certain policy guidance for the market. Bitcoin has surged significantly due to Trump’s nomination move, demonstrating the influence of policies on the cryptocurrency market.
Last night, Trump announced the nomination of cryptocurrency supporter Paul Atkins as the next chairman of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). After the announcement of this nomination, Bitcoin accelerated its rebound, with its price rising from around $95000 to $99000, and reaching a intraday high of around $104088.
From the perspective of economic data, the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows that economic activity has slightly increased in most parts of the United States, businesses are more optimistic about future demand, employment levels remain stable or slightly increase, and consumer spending is overall stable. In November, the “small non farm” ADP added 146000 jobs, the lowest in four months.
The Federal Reserve’s Beige Book shows a slight increase in the economy but a slowdown in job creation, which requires a comprehensive view of the economic development trend. The strong performance of the US stock market reflects market confidence in the economic outlook, but the decline in US bond yields may suggest some divergence in market expectations for future economic growth.We believe that the policy movements of the Federal Reserve, the strong performance of the US economy, and the volatility of global assets collectively depict a complex and ever-changing economic landscape. The Federal Reserve is trying to find a balance between supporting economic growth and controlling inflation while maintaining independence. The strong growth of the US economy and moderate growth in the job market have provided confidence to the market, but have also brought concerns about inflation and debt. The performance of global assets, especially the rise of cryptocurrencies, reflects the market’s interest in emerging asset classes and expectations for future economic prospects. These factors working together will have a profound impact on the global economy and financial markets.
**Global main asset performance:**The US stock market performed well, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising 0.69% and closing above 45000 points for the first time, the Nasdaq rising 1.30%, and the S&P 500 index rising 0.61%. All three major stock indices reached historic closing highs. Large tech stocks have generally risen.On global assets, Trump nominated a pro cryptocurrency SEC chairman, pushing Bitcoin to break through the 100000 mark. The US dollar index fluctuated above the 106 level and ultimately closed up 0.01% at 106.33. The yield of US Treasury bonds has declined, with the two-year bond yield closing at 4.132% and the 10-year bond yield closing at 4.182%.
BTC analysis:
Yesterday afternoon, I wrote an analysis that mentioned the BTC four hour chart, which is running on an upward trend line. Currently, the short-term support of the trend line roughly overlaps with the trend indicator, and it is running around 94000–94500. If it is above this level, it tends to be bullish. BTC hit its lowest point early this morning and rebounded near the support line of 94587, which is in line with expectations. The overall pace is also quite similar to the trend of the three major US stock indexes reaching new historical highs. After Bitcoin hit a new historical high, there is no reference resistance level above. On the right side, the trend is to buy back. Currently, the funding rate is very high, reaching a level of 10% per ten thousand across the entire network. Please note that there may be a pullback market caused by multiple closing positions and speculative short positions before settlement.
The bullish support position continues to refer to the 4-hour level uptrend line and is currently roughly moving up to around $95000–95500.
At present, the Coinank clearing heatmap shows that there are two relatively dense clearing areas below in the short term. The first is that if the market falls to around $100250, $205 million of positions will be liquidated; If the market drops to around $99300, a position worth $222 million will be liquidated. It can be used as a reference for risk control or intervention location.
Author: Laolibtc
Coinank Research
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